Climate Change and Surfing in the UK

The basic science behind climate change is now accepted by the overwhelming majority of the scientific community and most scientists agree that the impact will affect the whole planet in many different ways.  So what does climate change mean for surfers in the UK? Putting aside all the other global problems that climate change may cause for a moment, what predictions can be made about UK surfing in the future?  Surfers Against Sewage have produced a report on this very subject and this is what they found.

Increasing winter rainfall is expected to lead to more raw sewage overflows and more diffuse pollution from urban and agricultural runoff. Subsequently, water quality during the winter is likely to suffer significantly. An increase in the occurrence of flooding events due to a combination of high rainfall and sea level rise will also result in further water pollution.

Sea level rise will result in low tide reef breaks working less frequently.  It is also likely to increase beach erosion in many areas.  This could lead to an increase in shoreline protection schemes, which are often built at the expense of surf breaks.

Forecasts suggest that the wave climate itself may change, leading to a small increase in the likelihood of bigger and more consistent waves during the winter. Whether these waves will be of the quality needed for surfers is uncertain, bigger waves do not necessarily mean better surf. Changes in storm tracks may mean that any increase does not benefit all regions and it is possible some locations could see a reduction in wave climate at the shore. Whilst winter may see more storm activity, it looks possible that summer could become even more inconsistent with longer flat periods.

Water temperatures will almost certainly increase slightly in the short term.  There is however, the threat of much colder water if the Gulf Stream did shut down.

So what's the bottom line? If left unchecked, climate change is likely to have a significant impact on surfing in the UK. Whilst there may be some benefits at some locations, on balance, there seems to be much more potential for negative impacts to occur.

For more detailed information, including a full list of references, check out the full report by SAS here.