The Sea The Sea

East Coast Philippines© 2008 - declan hearne
Heckle and Jeckle

I returned to the Philippines in early February 2006 after spending a little over a month at home in Ireland and found myself noticing unusual climatic patterns on both sides of the globe. February in the Philippines is Amihan season, the North Easterly Monsoon and this time last year the Philippine national meteorological office was forecasting the onset of a la Niña condition developing over the tropical pacific. One year later el Niño is forecasted to hit in the middle of 2007. The el Niño system currently making its way through the Pacific Ocean is expected to bring some of the hottest temperatures on record along with it. That’s a full oscillation in one year of a cycle which is supposed to take 2-7 years.

The signature of la Niña is cooler than normal surface sea temperatures over the eastern pacific along Peruvian Coasts and warmer than normal over the western pacific, bringing excessive rains with possible disastrous effects of unpredictable weather patterns for much of South East Asia. El Nino conversely, brings drought to South East Asia and floods to the South America pacific coastline.

sercet© 2008 - verna hearne
On Monday 13th of February 2006, with la Niña in full effect, the Philippine National Disaster Coordinating Council recommended President Gloria Macapagal- Arroyo to declare a state of calamity over six provinces and four cities affected by northeastern monsoon rains. By the following Friday a village was smothered by the collapse of a hillside bare of its natural forests. Such ‘natural’ disasters are usually the result of multiple reasons but often exaggerated by anthropogenic actions such as logging and mining. The triggers tend to remain the ‘natural’ cause. In this case, an area of heavily denuded forest received heavy rains, 220cm in 10 days, topped off with a small earthquake. The result was disaster for the village and people of Guinsaugon, Leyte. A week later as I wrote this, the rain still fell.
All these after spending nearly six weeks in Ireland in the depths of winter and only having two wet days! I started to wonder if we are recognizing first hand the effects of global warming. Something seemed amiss for sure. For the whole month of January, Ireland was locked in a blocking high pressure system. The anti-cyclone sat stable dragging a cold air mass from continental Europe dropping our temperature but keeping the sky rain free. I don’t know anyone who would complain about the cold over the wet miserable rain, but the sea temperatures were shocking.

Old school ways
Normally from what I remember working on our farm during my school days, a blocking high pressure would whip up cold easterly winds. These easterlies would expose the farm sheds and the barns, its cold wind blowing straight in the front of the buildings. You see the traditional farm buildings were always built to shelter from the prevailing westerly winds, with large entrances exposed to the east. The freezing pain in my fingers from washing with the icy water in the icy winds makes those blocking high pressures easy to remember. From the end of December and the whole month of January, the anti-cyclone sat stable. For the whole month I watched the low pressures track across the Atlantic. These winter low pressures are the dominate feature of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Normally a deep low would blast through the high pressure after a few days, a week at most. Only this January the low pressures bounced, one after another, off this seemingly invincible high pressure system and drift off north westwards towards the Faeroe Islands. Climatologist will tell you that the North Atlantic Oscillation is responsible for much of the variability of weather in the North Atlantic region, especially in the winter months. If the index is low (NAO-), westerlies are suppressed, and we suffer cold winters and the storm track is said to shift southerly toward the Mediterranean Sea. For the 05-06 winter the NAO index was low but the storm track was no where near the Mediterranean.

Living on the south coast we had poor surf conditions as each of the low pressures deflected to the north, not the south. Whatever was going on with the weather cycles the whole country was dry and cold, the south coast mostly flat and the west and north coast pumping. Those coasts were blessed with swell conditions comparable with any where on the plant for the first month of 2006.

I had key hole surgery on my elbow in the middle of the month (patching up after a tricycle accident on a surf trip in the Philippines), I had no access to a car and spent most of my time on the south coast, but the few chances I got to the west and north west coasts were blessed, if not damned feicing freezing! The day after getting my stitches out, it was about two foot in T-Bay, calm and with a slight off shore. Actually it was an icy off shore with wind chill of around -2 degrees Celsius. Ribbie, a local who had just recovered from having his ears drilled (always a true sign of being stupidly dedicated to the cold water sessions), had just come in from the water. He was trembling all over and cursing “feicing coldest water I have ever-ever been in.” I pushed him, “it can’t be, you’re only putting me off,” but he insisted and hobbled off in search of a hot shower. I preceded slowly contemplating the tropical 28 degrees Celsius (84F) I had last surfed in the Philippines, my four year old wetsuit and booties with holes and the 7 degrees Celsius (44F) water ahead of me. Why do we do it…? Well, divulge in the pictures and you can see why I repeatedly went through the ritual of bringing my body to near hyperthermia conditions just to commune with the pulse of the ice winter waves whenever I could, across the length and breadth of the country.


Bunmahon© 2008 - declan hearne

On the west coast of Ireland, more extreme waves are being opened up by fellow T-Bay shams. I read and watch the clips in awe, full respect to the lads, but lets be real, these only suitable for a few extremely dedicated and hardy among us. For the opposite end of the scale, improvements in wetsuits and availability of boards, helped by the recent economic success in Ireland, has resulted in all the popular breaks becoming crowded - even in winter. Still, on a
Deforestation continues in the Philippines, surfers ride on in Eire
indifferent to climate change?

Back to reality
Meanwhile, back in the Philippines as I run along over the hills past the paddy fields, I can enjoy the gifts of the extended North Easterly Monsoon. As the rain continues to fall when it should be dry, I note the increasingly bare hillsides and ponder whether local actions such as reforestation can abate disasters such as the Leyte landslides, or if we are witnessing substantial deviation in climate patterns? Something which is more deeply entrenched, something which will require a shift in behavior across all societies. Something that patchwork reforestation projects will conceal for awhile but never stem the flow of change which we are now witnessing. Climate change is like a super tanker, slow to get going, but once it gets going, it is much slower to turn around.

If this is a true shift in weather patterns for the depths of the Irish winter maybe those dammed cold easterly winds will become common feature and on a lonely January morning, the isolated waves will roll and roll, one by one crashing on the shores un-ridden, untamed. However, be reassured it was so bitterly cold, you are right to have stayed at home by the fire, all the more for the hardy few to enjoy the cold and the bliss.
But that was last year, rolling on a year from my trip home and it seems big wave surfing in Ireland has caught the attention of international surf community, maybe those lonely January morning, won’t be so lonely for long.

As for the Philippines, this year’s monsoon has been particularly consistent and for those who know where to hide from the on shore winds and rains it has been particular rewarding. A year has also past since the landslides of Guinsaugon, Leyte. In that year the Philippines was savaged by 7 typhoons. The latest was typhoon durian in December 2006. Durian triggered further mud slides with figures approach 1000 person dead or unaccounted. The forecasted el nino has been muted slightly with extended rains, however U.S. meteorologist have stated that its impacts may be felt later in the year.

I known I am flicking from great swells to tragedy, but it is worth linking the two. Drawing out a few of the dots, maybe you can fill in the missing dots to build the global picture. While everything might still seem fine at home in Ireland, the UK or the USA, things aren’t fine everywhere. We see and hear, but continue to act like we are deaf and blind. While there is no definite proof of connection, I don’t think we should be waiting for one and while we enjoy the benefits of the current season we should be considering the ways we get to the surf and how we live in between seasons.

As in the Greek epic The Sea, The Sea, where Xenophon calls upon his fellow soldiers to do great deeds “let us be the first to summon the rest to the path of honour,” one leader Apollonides declared “that it was nonsense to propose such changes” and best to maintain the status quo. The parallel with climate change, climate doubters and some current leaders refusal to accept the need for a change of course, is obvious. Xenophon however, cut him short and spoke, “my dear good man, you are the sort of person who neither understand what sees nor remembers what he hears.”

Xenophon’s words are as appropriate today, with all the knowledge in our possession we still maintain the status quo. Shouldn’t we start understanding and remembering the changes that we see and hear from the Sea? Come back Xenophon, the time and people are ripe for change…

southern philippines© 2008 - declan hearne

About the Author
Declan Hearne has been working in conservation across the global for over ten years. Since 2003 he has been based in Mindanao working with communities in management of water and against climate change. Originally from a coastal farm in Southern Ireland his work has taken from the lunar desert landscapes of Northern Peru to the lush wet tropics of the Philippines. The overlap of work destinations and areas of quality surf was not just chance. His Photography and writings leave a trail of personal and professional impressions from interactions with people, land and waterscapes along the way.

He can be contacted at: dhfotography@gmail.com or www.declanhearne.webs.com/

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