We try to keep MagicSeaweed.com bullshit free. So we're going to give you the good news AND the bad news. Here is the bad news. Or better still some things to look out for when using swell models.
Swell models are designed primarily for mariners. They are generally interested in how 'rough' or dangerous the sea is going to be at a given spot. They aren't interested in surf. We have very different requirements and the margin for error on a surf forecast is much much much smaller. A 6ft swell in a boat is just that. For a surfer it could be a perfect barrel or a mushy closeout on the beach.
Bear in mind the following:
- Swell models give you the 'significant' sea height. This is the average height of the largest 1/3 of the waves and includes all swells hitting a given spot. There could be a really high quality groundswell heading south and a low period windsea coming in from the west and the model will show the combined height of both. This will equate to the actual size of the waves at sea, but your south facing beach might be filtering out the poor swell and showing just the decent groundswell - or the opposite.
- Swell models report the 'dominant' swell. This tends to be the largest swell of the several that may be at a certain point at any one time. Again as above this can be a little unrefined for the surfer.
- Long period waves, which are better for surfing, tend to have a flatter profile. This means they are less 'high' on the charts and reports - however the waves they produce on the beach may be as large or sometimes considerably larger than the swell height. Conversely low period waves tend to stand tall in the water but with little energy create smaller waves on the beach.
All this is something to be aware of. Don't let it put you off making the effort to learn how to use the available data. Don't forget that the very best surf forecasters are using the same data that we make available to you on this site (and others similar). |
