Friday 13th Update
After a more intense period, Humberto is now starting to weaken as vertical wind shear increases and it should lose hurricane status today.
Hurricane Humberto is located approximately at 24.4º N and 30.2ºW, 700 miles northwest of Cape Verde with maximum sustained winds of 65kts and is currently on a NNW track at 12 mph.
After a more intense period, Humberto is now starting to weaken as vertical wind shear increases and should lose its hurricane status today. This weakening period should only last for 48 hours, since Humberto should move to warmer waters after this weekend. For now the results presented by the different models still give a few possible scenarios, but the great majority shows a new intensification and a new abrupt change on its path for next week, increasing the possibilities of reaching Europe.
Surf Outlook: During next week the East Coast should receive a fun sized longer period swell, that according to our latest model data should peak around 3-4ft in most locations. Most of the energy will be sent directly to the North Carolina area, but the southern areas like Florida and South Carolina should also get their share. The northern part of the country should get a bit less energy, give its distance from the initial location of the storm responsible for the initial pulses, but given the current uncertainty of the storm development after starting to move across warmer waters, this scenario can still change.
Florida: The first forerunners should start arriving during Wednesday morning and peaking during Thursday with 3.5ft@13 sec from E and easing during Friday afternoon. Given the distance from the storm and the extra path the swell will travel to reach the coast, we should not expect long breaks between the different swell pulses.
North Carolina: A succession of swell pulses with similar directions will be traveling towards the NC beaches, starting to arrive during Tuesday and peaking during Thursday with 3.5ft@14 sec from ESE and possibly maintaining these conditions during Friday, what still requires posterior confirmation.
NorthEast States: Smaller conditions than the ones expected for the southern states, with the swell peaking at 2.5ft@14 sec from SE during Thursday and easing during Friday.
Wednesday 11th Update
Humberto is now officially the first hurricane of the season in the Atlantic. It is located approximately at 16º N and 28.9ºW, 200 miles west of Cape Verde with maximum sustained winds of 65kts and is currently on a NNW track at 8mph.
Hurricane Humberto is currently in a strengthening phase but is expected to start to weaken tomorrow due to wind shear and cooler sea temperatures. Later this week, as it starts to move west, it should enter an area of warmer water and what could be a new phase of intensification.
For now Humberto is expected to continue moving north before making a hard left turn in the next few days. This new path towards the East Coast should be responsible for generating a small swell for the US East Coast during the next week, before perhaps returning to a more northerly path. During the next couple of days we will continue to monitor its evolution.
Surf Outlook: Due to the change of path expected to happen in the next few days, Humberto should be responsible for a modest but decent surf on the East Coast. We can expect to see the first forerunners on the northern part of the country during next Tuesday/Wednesday, but given Humberto’s position and expected directional spread of the swell, most of the East Coast should receive something.
Monday 9th Update
Tropical Storm Humberto should continue to intensify over the next few days and become the first Atlantic hurricane of this season.
Tropical Storm Humberto is currently located near 85 miles of SSE Cape Verde Islands, with maximum sustained winds of 40 kts and moving towards W at 10 kts.
The current forecast track does not present the straight west path we are used to seeing in West African storms moving across the Atlantic. The latest data suggests that a strong upper-level low over the Iberia Peninsula may be responsible for the ridge that will make the storm take a more northerly path in the next couple of days, before steering West again.
The model data suggests that given the weak wind shear and the above average sea surface temperatures, the storm should continue to intensify in next few days, reaching a maximum of 80 kts winds next Thursday, eventually weakening after that.
Surf Outlook: This northerly path will not create any significant swell for the US East Coast and if the storm weakens as expected when it resumes its westerly track the outlook at this stage is relatively poor for surf - however at this range things can change and we'll be providing regular updates here.