UPDATE SATURDAY - Danielle numbers continue to cool as she send the large part of her energy north and westward, Florida can still expect the brunt of the swell from the original fetch with the lastest model showing that 6-9ft swell, Outer Banks latest is in the 5-8ft range, New Jersey really seems to have skipped the bulk of this one with best numbers in the 4-6ft swell range, a little larger heading north from here with Nova Scotia looking to hit the 6-9ft range. These are all swell heights from the latest hurricane models not breaking wave, expect the long period swell to produce larger faces at the better spots. All in all looks like solid fun surf everywhere, probably some interesting size further south as the swell peaks but, certainly heading north, not on the scale we saw with Hurricane Bill last year.
Hurricane Earl is looking potentially more potent than Danielle at the moment, although the early call on Danielle was for better than we’re getting (assuming bigger = better at least) so every reason to be cool on the potential at the moment. However this mid Atlantic low we tentatively called last week is still showing clearly on the latest models and we’re moving into high confidence in that. Likewise the fledgling storm on the tail of Earl does not look almost certain to take on Tropical Storm status shortly and we can see another hint of a low building on the West coast of Africa that gives at least a hint of storm four in the series.
The outlook is for continued interesting, longer period swell for the East Coast US, Canada and the Caribbean for the foreseeable and we’re very confident now that Hurricane Danielle will announce the awakening of Autumn surf for European surfers after a somewhat mellow summer of surf. A bit early just at the minute but we’re not far off looking potentially interesting for the start of the European leg of the tour.
Danielle meet Earl, Earl meet Danielle - both Category two or soon to be, both stuck in the same little ocean we call the North Atlantic and both heading in the same direction… Match making puns are probably going to get old fast and besides it’s less a love match than Earl desperately chasing Danielle up the coast, but either way we’ve now got not one but two great looking swell making Hurricanes hot on each others tails.
Not only that but the models are still showing the developing Azores low sending swell westward for the east coast somewhere in this mix. It’s got to the stage where it’s hard to separate them all out and make a call except to say the East coast is on red alert for potential swell from all directions.
Tropical Storm Earl is forecast at the moment to take a slightly more southerly track than Danielle, intensify to a category two over the next few days and then most likely follow a fairly kind track North west avoiding landfall (although slim chance of a destructive brush with land in the Caribbean) while spitting swell west and north. It’s early days but we’ll update with the outlook for swell when we’ve got better numbers - we’re talking about later next week for the US East coast at the moment.
Oh and we’re keeping an eye out for Europe too, this storm that’s brewing mid Atlantic is pretty much looking like someone’s dropped a giant rock in middle of the ocean. Swell is propagating like giant ripples in a pond hitting all coasts including Europe - more exciting still the latest models show Hurricane Danielle heading back across to Europe and losing little of the passion for swell generation she’s shown so far. We’re talking early next week for the first pulse and then towards the end of next week and the weekend for the potential for some solid long range Hurricane power to be felt from Ireland and the UK south all the way to North Africa.
Having a look at the latest radar there’s even a little cluster of clouds sitting off Africa that have a hint of potential about them for storm three in the series…
Good time to wax the board, check your leash and prepare your excuses for a few days off work… As always the MSW Hurricane Forecast updates with the latest data for all Storms and your local area four times a day.
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