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Hurricane Danielle Wed Update

by on Wednesday 25th August, 2010   26003 Views

Hurricane Danielle calmed down a little before regaining Hurricane status, she looks most likely now to stick around in category one and the major hurricane probabilities are now low. We’ve still got a sweet looking storm on our hands and the latest prognosis looks something like this (Things change - we’re trying to get you the latest as it happens but keep checking for the latest call):

Florida
Good news and bad news. With the storm heating up some way out into the Atlantic we’ve had plenty of fetch for producing good swell for Florida through to North Carolina, the bad news is we’re still looking at the possibility of strong onshore winds being an issue when the bulk of the initial pulse of westerly swell fill in on Sunday. We’re a little way out right now but latest numbers for sunday are swell in the 8-12ft range and these numbers are a reasonable bet for Georgia through South Carolina too. You’ll start to see the front runners on saturday.

North Carolina
The outlook is similar, strong north westerly winds and swell currently in the 8-12ft range. Your outlook is improved by the availability of spots that can cope better with these winds.

North East
The swell really won’t start arriving in any size until the early part of next week and the detailed Hurricane models we use don’t run out that far, although we have every expectation your numbers will at least match those further south. None the less you will see the fore runners of this swell start to arrive on saturday with likely chest high conditions building to a good looking head high long period on sunday. You’re forecast for generally kind local winds until the bulk of the swell arrives when it looks, at the moment, like you’ll see the same strong NW as further south. Definitely worth planning for the weekend and considering your work commitments for the middle of next week!

Nova Scotia
Good looking swell arriving for the weekend with the bulk to follow. Sunday looks at the moment to be in the 5-8ft range and this should be just a taste of what’s to come for you later in the week. Good news is this one looks unlikely to come to close to the coast.

WARNING: As always your usual MSW forecast will potentially undercall hurricane swell - check the regional hurricane report for more accurate numbers

Combo Swell???

So right now the North Atlantic is forecast to go a bit mental. Before we get too excited the note of caution with all this is model data changes, this chart might never come to pass, but as it stands we’ve got a Hurricane, another likely Tropical Storm chasing its tail and a big fat low pressure set to build over the Azores and spit it’s swell West for a change showing more swell to the East coast. The possibilities? An East coast combo swell? Hurricane juice from the South West meeting some raw Atlantic power from the North East? For now we’ll sit patiently waiting for the next model update before we get too excited - these things can and do change, but it’s definitely the most interesting chart we’ve seen for a while…

Combo swell conditions? © 2014 MSW

More details and the raw data with out our over excited spin on it is available here for Hurricane Danielle

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