Model timings and sizes for this latest run of swell have been slightly wide of the mark across the board. For today the latest buoy readings suggest we've forecast a little early and a little larger than it's likely to show at dawn.
Our model has lowballed both the recent peak day at Mavericks and the last swell at Jaws. Something of a sneaker tow session that saw Kai Lenny on an absolute bomb. For this one coming the opposite looks to be the case. Pauwela buoy readings from our friends at PacIOOS are showing slightly less than expected at we hit midnight local time. Add to that the drop in the forecast since the comp was called we're likely looking at a pretty different day to last years swell - at least the bombs of early morning. The swell is also a little later than called, this isn't actually a bad thing, potentially pushing the peak back towards late morning and giving us a little more scope for size towards the finals. In fact the latest buoy readings confirm that our offshore forecast for size is about right if we push the peak forward almost 12 hours. The other thing to note is our forecast is showing a good chunk of energy in the 18 second period band and the buoy confirms this with a long tail of longer period energy that we know will mean good news on the reef.
- Magicseaweed 11.5ft @ 15 seconds.
- Surfline 15ft @ 16 seconds.
- Pauwela Buoy 11ft @ 14 seconds
MSW forecast from the latest model data is the dotted red line. You can see we're over calling the current swell right now. The solid red line is the forecast from yesterday. You can see how the model has cooled on this swell as we incorporated the latest wind data overnight. You can also see how we were almost 3ft shy of reality on the last pulse.
MSW Forecast for the offshore wave buoy versus the latest data. Here you can see the shift of about 12 hours for that peak. Theoretically we could see growth beyond that peak as the swell develops. This timing shift could actually be beneficial for competition
So what does a forecast 11-12ft@16 look like in the water? Cast back to the last swell of the El Nino winter in March. We should see some increase on this with that longer period energy in the mix and as the swell builds into the afternoon.