A low pressure system sitting just outside the Bay of Biscay offers a very positive outlook for pulses of swell offering continuing fun, contestable mid sized conditions with generally light winds and fair weather over the first few days. Beyond this we have a period of uncertainty with a risk of small conditions before the possibility of a larger local storm which could bring swell towards the start of October. Big dawn and dusk high tides.
Swell continues to pulse offering potential for slightly larger conditions than on Tuesday afternoon particularly towards the end of the day with waves expected in the shoulder to head high range. Winds are generally favourable although again a warm day means a chance of some onshore air flow as the land heats up later in the morning and on into the afternoon. Tides start to drop back slightly from the large springs of previous days.
The tail end of the last pulse of this swell still look to hold in a similar size range throughout the day with similar winds and tides.
The very end of the swell from this storm system starting smaller and weaker than on Thursday and dropping further through the day. Slightly stronger southerly wind in the morning gusting into the afternoon with the warm temperatures pulling it onshore as the day progresses.
A weak, confused jetstream means the outlook at this range is very uncertain. We’re unlikely to be looking at a typical pattern of deeper Autumnal lows in the North Atlantic and instead the risks are a mix of flatter spells with smaller low pressure systems more local in origin. While these can bring the perfect mid period NW swell we’d want to see at La Grav the risks are also of strong local winds and wind sea. The current outlook suggests the most likely scenario a spell of very small and weak conditions until the beginning of October when we could see a more significant low pressure system form somewhere just north west of France.