Quik Pro Forecast

Quiksilver Pro France Forecast 3rd October -- contest period forecast to hit a decent run of surf. Day two of the holding period looks interesting before onshore winds arrive later in the week, followed by a promising weekend.

Weds, Oct 5: Building NW swell, sunny weather and light winds for with waves in the 4-6ft range by later in the day. Afternoon sea breezes will turn onshore thanks to afternoon convection.

Thurs, Oct 6th: NW swell reaches its peak in combination with some long range groundswell from former Hurricane Ophelia, bringing potential for 6-8ft (head to head and a half) surf. Morning winds will be light, increasing to a moderate onshore flow later.

Friday, Oct 7th: Slight drop in swell from Thursday before reinforcing swell arrives late afternoon. Winds will be fresh to moderate, onshore plus cloud and possible rain.

Conditions for Thursday and Friday are complicated by a developing low pressure system in the Mediterranean potentially bringing problematic winds to the Atlantic coast.

The weekend, October 8th and 9th: Strengthening NW swell from a low pressure system formed around ex-Hurricane Ophelia under influence of a strong jet stream around NW Ireland. Surf will be larger 6-10ft+ faces (head and a half+) and current outlook is for sunny weather and light winds. So look for a normal light offshore morning, light onshore afternoon.
[FLASH-chart 630:300::]

At a glance:

? Mid sized NW swell starts building on wednesday
? 5-7t faces wednesday with 6-8ft+ faces possible thursday.
? Small long period west swell from Hurricane Ophelia also arrives peaking Thurs/Fri
? Warm weather brings afternoon onshore sea breezes exacerbated by a potential for stronger westerly winds towards the end of the week
? Increasing chance of larger conditions towards next weekend from a low pressure system involving Ex. Hurricane Ophelia with potential for favourable winds. 6-10ft faces.

* Wave heights are face height - 3ft = Waist / 4ft = Chest / 5-6ft = head / 8ft = Head and a half.

Forecasting for France/Hossegor
France's luck is to be positioned to pick up the full brunt of Atlantic swell, but lie comfortably to the south of the main jet stream track giving good odds for light local winds. A typical situation in the contest period would be 4-8ft (1-2.5m) swells, mid period and a strong morning offshore, followed by mid afternoon onshores and an evening glass off.

However this 'typical' setup is far from assured. Southern France can find itself bearing the full brunt of the occasional wayward storm - a glance back a decade or so shows 17-25ft (5-7.5m) swells over the contest period - and does have the potential to offer up the odd frustrating flat spell.

Tidal range of around three meters can mean rapid changes in conditions as the water moves from bank to bank. Hossegor is blessed with a deep water trench that can add size to even the weakest of swells and the whole coastline here is steep enough to extract both maximum power from any swell and create barrelling waves whenever the conditions allow. Even a relatively weak 3-4ft (1-1.5m) swell can create overhead conditions on the right bank.

Ed Temperley

MSW editor. Instagram @edtemperley