Wednesdays swell peaks and fades quickly with Thursday troubled by increasing winds on a dropping swell. A little local bump to this fading swell gives us waves on Friday with better winds.
Thursday 3rd October
Swell fading quickly with increasing southerly winds during the day
The relatively local nature of the current swell coupled with a fairly short duration of strong wind fetch in the middle of the storm means the duration of the swell will be shorter that for more distant, stronger, NW storms. Where we saw the swell fill in quickly overnight on Tuesday we'll see it start to fade fairly quickly from a peak some time on Wednesday afternoon. In addition to this it looks likely that the local winds will blow increasingly strongly from the south during the day. The best of swell and wind will be first thing with surf starting the day about 2/3rds the size of todays peak and better waves in the head high range. We'd expect that lighter south wind to start the day pulled offshore by the overnight sea breeze but both increase in strength during the day and take on a little more west in the direction potentially causing issues later in the day.
Friday 4th October
Remnants of Wednesdays well with some local swell in the mix. Lighter winds.
The dying remains of Wednesdays swell mix in with a little reinforcing local swell unlikely to boost wave size but holding size a little more consistent through the day than it'd otherwise be. Waves in the chest high range. Winds generally light. This outlook depends on a small area of wind fetch developing in the Bay of Biscay on Thursday and if this doesn't happen as expected (which is possible even at this range given it's size and location) we'll see smaller conditions than this.
Saturday 5th - Sunday 6th October
Dropping small local swell. Light winds.
Best of the weekend will be on Saturday morning and it's all downhill from there. From a modest start in the waist high range fading through the day on Saturday and into Sunday. Light winds.