Solid swell starts to build late on Tuesday, peaking into Wednesday and easing towards the end of the week. Generally favourable local conditions but with signs of stronger southerly winds on Thursday.
Wednesday 2nd Oct
Solid swell builds through the day with a slight downgrade in size predicted from the latest satellite data.
Swell from dawn with every reason to expect offshore winds first thing. The swell will build through the day becoming more consistent as the period drops and the size increases. Comparing the latest satellite pass to the forecast swell we're seeing good correlation for the bulk of the swell but the peak being overcalled by around 20%. This'll manifest in numbers on the beach about a foot or two below those predicted by the models - nearer 5ft@13seconds. Still good solid swell offering waves in the overhead range but downgraded a little from yesterdays expectations now we can actually monitor the swell heading away from the storm.
Thursday 3rd October
Easing swell and higher risk of SW winds
The swell eases with contestable waves all day but dropping back relatively quickly from yesterdays peak. We've been watching the low pressure skirt the coast on the last few model updates and it does look increasingly likely that Thursday will be the day a bit of SW wind will blow in particularly into the afternoon. This may be strong enough to cause an issue at times although there's still some variation at this range.
Friday 4th - Saturday 5th October
Dropping swell continues with generally light winds
We'll continue to see waves in the chest to head high range on Friday morning easing through the day and on into Saturday with generally light winds.