South Swell: Contact Americas

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FIRST Mexican contact for the forecasted south swell event didn't end so well for Will Dillon as captured by Lonnie of RPM Surfer. Fittingly at Puerto Escondido (Mexpipe) the long period forunners of the swell arrived on July 23rd and effectively shut down the beach to all but the brave. The swell is predicted to fill in further today (Friday 24th) as it sweeeps up the coastline towards Califonia and the Hurley US Open. Expect two epic days of competition with Kelly Slater, Andy Irons and Rob Machado all still charging in the competition. The swell will peak on Friday but continue to pump throughout the weekend.

South swell

The concept of the often mis-quoted Butterfly Effect is simply how minimal changes in input can result in wildly different outputs, i.e. forecating a swell 16 days in advance can throw up some hugely different senarios. However when a massive south swell event like this one (which has had the forecasting world fixated for the past week) gets moving all you have to worry about calling is how big will it get? Well, Central America and Mexico are currently looking about as good as it gets. Waves faces three to four times overhead are already there and will continue throughout the day. Despite suffering slight decay California will be overhead. Heading north a swell like this will esentially travel until it hits land so call in sick and dig out your boards.

World outlook

The Roaring 40s were in hyperactive mode last week producing not only this south swell but also waves for South African and Western Australian and Tasmanian surfers. Shipsterns went off (more on this soon) as did The Cape with sizeable swells tracking up the Indian Ocean to the Bali Billabong Pro Junior.

Billabong Pro Junior Bali

Check out this board-breaking video highlight package of day three of the Billabong Pro Junior Bali which was won by Auusie, Dean Bowen, yesterday. Held in magnificent surf over four days at the now famous Keramas Rivermouth on the east coast of Bali, Bowen's powerful backhand on-face surfing proved too strong for fellow Aussie Teale Vanner in a one-sided final. Bowen's win today saw him significantly jump from 10th up to 2nd place on the ASP Australasian 2009 Pro Junior ratings behind Owen Wright.

Ed Temperley

MSW editor. Twitter @edtemperley