Tasman Shootout

CALLING all photographers, we're looking for your best efforts at capturing the coming juice. Forecast to roll up the Tasman Sea is a sizeable blob of unusually long period Southern Hemi power. Top three efforts win a wetsuit of your choice from Agent 18 and the top shutter bug gets a bells and whistles paid Tropical commission for magicseaweed.

You can upload your pics HERE we'll consider all images uploaded from the region as eligible until the swell stops. We'll be running galleries of all your images as they drop in before notifying you of the final submission deadline (probably around July 16th). All photos need to be 1000px at their widest point.

Head judge, Uge Tan of Aquabumps will be on hand to make the final call on the shortlist. If you don't know his work then have a gander at his daily Bondi pictorial wanderings. Backing him up will be Alex Marks from Bluesnapper who'll be casting his critical eye over submissions.

Check out all the submissions HERE you can add to the selection using the Tasman Shootout tag

Swell Update: 8.40pm EST 8th July

The peak swell heights have cooled a little on the latest model run, back to the 45ft we've been seeing over the last few runs rather than the 50ft of yesterday. Perhaps more importantly the swell is looking even more westerly than before. The combination of slight reduction in heights and changing angle reduces the likely size for NSW for Sunday/Monday although we're still in the large range with exceptionally long period. The shift in direction further increases the impact in NZ and does little to alter the call for Fiji, a slight reduction in size and a slight delay in the arrival time on the new swell.

Candidate Swell:

A low pressure of 944 coupled with an enormous fetch stretching more than 1,500 miles for 72 hours is forecast to produce a powerful groundswell, impacting the southern shores of Australia and Tasmania before wrapping up the East Coast, New Zealand and eventually Fiji. Rather than arriving all at once pulses of this long period swell will hit throughout the week offering up less challenging opportunities in-between the larger stuff.

The lower Eastern Coast of Australia will see a volley of swells, accompanied by stiff westerly winds. These winds will often exceed 20 knots with a minimum of around 10 knots. Exposed beaches, reefs and outer bombies to the south will a pick up the most swell whilst looking further north spots will see markedly less power thanks to the south/south-west direction.

A snapshot glance at the charts off Shipstern give an indication of the storm's scale. Coming in at a smidgen under 50ft at 17 seconds. Too big and onshore for Stern itself but secluded points should fire.

Strong polar low (944mbar in the centre) forecast to create a large south-west fetch.

Strong polar low (944mbar in the centre) forecast to create a large south-west fetch.

Heading further out, after rounding Tasmania the swell track points directly at Fiji. The forecast for Tavarua shows the swell hitting at midnight 12th at 12ft at 18 seconds. This grows to 15ft at 18seconds by the afternoon of Tues the 12th.

Comparison: Fiji super swells on 19/9/10 and now:

Remember Laurie Towner's 2010 freefall into the pit at Cloudbreak? The present swell is 'currently' similar to that September 2010 swell, hitting Tasmania and following the same storm track up past the west coast of New Zealand. Both weather systems hit a low of 944 south of Tasmania but notably the fetch this year is considerbly longer and straighter than it was in September 2010. This weather system could theoretically emulate last year's September session.

Ed Temperley

MSW editor. Instagram @edtemperley