Transworld SURF Forecast Update 08.23.10
By Adam Wright - www.socalsurf.com
The S swell is here…hitting all over the West Coast, pretty much from the exposed spots in Northern California on down through Central and South America. The main punch of energy hit Central America (like most of them do…the region are sort of like the kidney of the Pacific…they spend a lot of time getting slammed by swells, and probably wishing they could stopping peeing blood. Fortunately for the other regions, there were all sorts of background windswell and mid-size mixes of S-SW swells running around in the background that helped to flesh out some decent size at spots without the pure southerly exposure.
The best news is that both the halves of the Pacific are starting to kick things back into gear. The South Pacific which never really took much of break drilled a nice sized hole in the high-pressure that has been blocking up the good part of the swell window and piled up a bunch of fetch right into the gap, setting up a couple of good sized back to back that will hit this week…and some more that will be moving later in the month
The North Pacific….while doesn't have the power the SPAC does, is starting to get a bit rough around the edges with storms starting to show a little more life, better positioning, and just overall swell production potential. There is a mix of storm activity just below the Aleutians that is not just setting up a little WNW swell for the Pacific NW and Northern/Central California but it is helping to enhance the NW windswell that runs along the West Coast of California. These little bumps should do nicely at the combo spots…maybe even get a few bigger creases forming that would let us work a few fast, hollow rights to the beach.
Basically there isn't much energy in the water for the WNW-NW to make much surf on its own unless you are north of Point Conception, but spots that can pull in the mix of swells should do nicely with shoulder-head high surf for most of the week and some and some overhead sets that show at spots that can really pull in the legit combo.
East Pacific Tropics
Tropical Storm Frank formed on Sunday and has been sort of just hanging off the coast of Mainland Mexico. Right now he isn't a very strong system, and isn't in the Southern Cal swell window…he really isn't even in the Baja/Cabo swell window. But the latest forecast runs have ol' Frank tracking WNW and strengthening to at least a Category 1 hurricane as he heads toward the SoCal swell window.
This is his current forecast track…you can see him switching from storm to hurricane in the models sometime on Thursday.
Right now the forecasts are calling for him to make it all the way over to the very SE portion of our swell window by Saturday (Aug 28)…and in tropical storm probability this ranks a little above "snowball chance in hell"…but if Frank can hold it together then the SE facing spots might have a shot a little tropical swell around late Sunday/Monday (Aug 29-30).
Believe me…I am not holding my breath on this one being much of a wave-producer. He will probably end up going to Home Depot…maybe Bed, Bath and Beyond…if he has extra time…just not sure at this point.
The South Pacific
Over the next couple of days…the West Coast, Central America, Mexico, and Baja will all see a string of S-SW swells (180-190)…the majority of the energy will hit early this week but enough fetch and energy was lined up that all of those areas are going to see plenty of swell/surf throughout the week…just expect smaller surf as we head closer to this next weekend.
Mexico and Central America are going to be bigger over the weekend. Lots of spots are going to be in the shoulder-overhead range with some breaks going several feet overhead and probably even some double-overhead+ sizes at freak spots like Puerto Escondido.
The next round of bigger S-swell (180-190) started to fill in on Monday (Aug 23) and will peak on Tuesday…this one looks about shoulde- overhead on the sizes the same size but it will be mixing in with the leftovers from the weekend's swell…which could add some good size to the really exposed spots. I am still expecting some overhead+ surf at the West Coast (Socal mostly) standout breaks, but those South of the Border (Southern Mex and Central America) will be much bigger…with double-overhead sets and even some larger waves at times.
Look for these swells to drop slowly throughout the week…but at the same time staying pretty surfable all the way through to next weekend.
Further out there is yet another storm down by Chile that has fetch set up for Mainland Mex, Central America, as well as Baja and the West Coast to a much lesser degree. At this point it looks like this will send over another round of S-SW that would hit around the end of August…with the main portion of energy arriving in Central America and Peru.