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Transworld SURF Forecast Update 09.23.10

by on Monday 27th September, 2010   1804 Views

By Adam Wright - Solspot.com

Ok I am excited about the swell mix that we have coming next week (yah North Pacific!)…but the waiting is killing me. Sure I have a couple of longboards that will at least keep me in the water as we move through this nicely weathered weekend. But the forecast are showing a lot more activity in the NPAC that has the potential for some solid WNW-NW swell hitting by around the middle of next weekend.

In the meantime the short-range is pretty dull… for example check out the CDIP chart for Southern California…it doesn’t get much bluer than that…

Fortunately, even though that chart looks pretty dismal, it the region doesn’t go totally flat. There will be a mix of steep NW energy (a blend of windswell and a touch of medium-period energy) will help keep things punchy but just not all that consistent or big. Overall it will be just a little more energetic than the swell mix we were working with during Thursday/ Friday.

The forecast charts are where things really start to get interesting, particularly as we move into next week. The North Pacific gets allwintery looking and we start to see some legit storms assert themselves in the Gulf of Alaska.

Basically the West Coast is going to get hit by a long run of WNW-NW energy…starting up north (From the Pacific NW down through Central California) around the 25th, peaking on the 27th, and then holding for a few days afterwards. And if you look way out past Hawaii it looks like yet another system forming up. Apparently someone fixed the NPAC wave machine. Check out how this swell hits the Monterey Buoy (#46042).

 

At this point even if the storm comes in a bit weaker than the forecasts are calling for….there will still definitely be solid jump in surf along the Northern/Central California regions. The Pacific NW will get a lot of energy too…but the weather from this system is going to move in and hack things up for many areas. Socal won’t be as fun…but even that region will have bigger WNW-NW swell that than we have seen from the NPAC for quite a while.

But that is the worst case scenario…if the model lives up to what it is really calling for…which is basically 10-feet of deepwater swell at 15 seconds (hitting the usually accurate and mildly protected Monterey buoy) surf sizes will be going an easy double-overhead at breaks North of Point Conception…probably bigger at some of the top spots…and I wouldn’t be surprised if Mav’s gets a couple solid paddle sessions out of this one as well.

 

Socal, being tucked down behind Point Conception (and the Channel Islands and all the other junk that blocks the big swells) will get a smaller version…though exactly how small depends on how far South the swell-making fetch makes it into our swell window. At this point, and again this is using the “best case” scenario, I think the top NW exposed regions (Ventura, the South Bay, and South San Diego) would be looking at overhead surf as the biggest of these swells push through (likely on the 28-30th). One thing to keep in mind is that even though Socal will be smaller…the weather will likely be a lot better than the wild areas further north.

Anyway just wanted to give you a heads up…It is nice for Fall to start almost exactly on time. Keep checking back for more updates as we get closer to these storms forming.

The South Pacific
With this latest round of S-SW swell (180-220) on the way out…it looks like the SPAC will quiet down a bit…well at least the portion of Ocean that rolls through our swell window. It never really goes completely flat or anything, but we will be back into the semi-marginal since high-pressure forces most of the storms to form up over by New Zealand, rather than the “sweet spot” (in the open portion of our swell window).  Anyway…there isn’t much to expect surfwise, other than some minor background swells that will pulse on and off over the next week or so (maybe longer) but even with the smaller swell the conditions will be nice enough that the summer spots will at least remain surfable over the next several days.

About the only thing really interesting inthe SPAC is the very strong storm moving over ( or you could possibly say “through”) New Zealand. This storm is supposed to maintain some intensity as it plows over the island and the charts actually show it making an effort to reform into something a bit more organized as it moves away from NZ and into the open South Pacific.

Unfortunately forecast charts aren’t showing the storm making the right sort of movement, once it does move into the open ocean. Ideally we would like to have this storm push N-NE’erly so that it would have some waves heading our direction but instead it takes a very zonal path almost straight west-to-east across the SPAC. This doesn’t completely kill off swell production, it just great reduces the amount of fetch aimed our way…so the West Coast, basically from Socal down through Mexico, will get waves from this one…but the swell looks like it is lining up to be one of those really inconsistent SW’ers that seem to show sets every 20 minutes, but it won’t be much bigger than shoulder high when it finally hits near the end of the month. Check out the gap in the swell period behind Tahiti as the swell passes through those islands…too bad that gap lines right up with Southern California, Baja, and most of Mexico.

Down in the tropics
Still nothing in the tropics…well TS Georgette formed for about 4 hours and is already gone.

There is one little disturbance down along Mainland Mexico…that has some really low potential. Even the NHC doesn’t think very much of this system…

So at this point I am not expecting much from the tropics…definitely no swell…and likely not even any storm development for the next several days.

So there you have it folks…just some small waves for summer spots for the next few days…but increasing size at the NW breaks and good combo spots as we move into next week…with the potential for a good sized NW’er lining up for well exposed areas of the West Coast.

That is all I have for now…make sure to check back in on the new North Pacific action early next week. The next Long-range forecast will be posted on Monday, September 27, 2010.

Adam Wright
Surf Forecaster

http://www.solspot.com/

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