Tropical Depression One kicks off a season predicted to be slow by recent standards. Rolling up the US East Coast the storm should produce some kind of surf for most beaches on it’s route. It’s not going to be an epic surf generator for most exposed coastline but it’ll be a welcome start for many surfers given a season predicted to be blunted by a developing El Nino.
With water temperatures on the Eastern Seaboard a touch warmer than usual (particularly so further North) and wind shear set to remain low over the next few days TD One should have the opportunity to develop to tropical storm status. While a storm rolling along the coast like this won’t send the brunt of it’s energy to the beach it’ll creating meaningful surf in most locations, typically with strong onshore winds initially swinging rapidly cross then offshore leaving the post-storm leftovers the pick of it for most surfers.
South and Central Florida won’t see so much swell as the storm develops but by Wednesday Northern Florida should be seeing modest surf. The Outer banks are then forecast to cop the brunt of it on Thursday peaking into Friday with potentially very strong onshore winds initially and through the peak. If the storm follows it’s most likely track and swings away from the coast further north then New York might see the best of it on Saturday, with longer period and offshore winds for the duration. Our main model is seeing an optimistic 4.5ft@13 seconds with offshore winds right now - pumping beach break surf by anyone’s definition but with enough variability in the forecast for a change in those numbers to be likely rather than exceptional.
Of course we’re back into the world of Hurricane level uncertainties with this storm. There’s reasonable consensus on the path but some disagreement on the strength - particularly as the storm heads north. As always check your local forecast or our Hurricane Center for the latest information.
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