Tropical Storm Dorian Surf Outlook

by on Friday 26th July, 2013   16822 Visits   Comments

Tuesday 30th Update

Chances of Dorian regenerating drop to 20 percent

The remnants of Dorian is producing disorganised showers and thunderstorms which extend a few hundred miles east and northeast of the Turks and Caicos Islands.  Upper- level winds are not expected to be conducive for regeneration during the next couple of days as the disturbance moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.

We will be discontinuing updates for Dorian unless there is a dramatic reorganisation of the system.

Monday 29th Update

The remnants of Dorian are currently give a 40 percent probability of reforming. © 2014 NOAA

During the weekend Dorian as lost its tropical storm status, but could reform and will deliver surf to the Caribbean and East Coast.

The low pressure area associated with Dorian’s remains continues to move west and is currently located north of the Leeward Islands. No great developments are expected in the next 24 hours, nevertheless the National Hurricane Center is still giving Dorian a 40% probability of developing to a tropical cyclone in the coming 48 hours.

Despite being or not a Tropical Storm anymore, Dorian’s transition was characterised by the presence of a high pressure area stationed in the Mid-Atlantic, which lead to strong pressure gradients and therefore intense wind fields. Those fetch areas are responsible for the swell we expect to start hitting the Caribbean later today and tomorrow. The East Coast will start receiving the first pulse tomorrow (Tuesday) and in most locations continuing to fill in during Wednesday. 

Dorian will deliver surf to the East Coast, just not a huge amount.

Friday 26th Update

The current official forecast track shows that Dorian should continue on a path aimed at Bahamas, but a great deal of uncertainty exists within the model runs.

This morning Tropical Storm Dorian was located near Latitude 17º 06’ N and longitude 41º 30’ W, approximately at 2200 km from the Northern Leeward Islands. The maximum wind speed as slightly decreased to 45 kts with gusts up to 55 kts. The current track forecast shows that it will continue on a west-northwest path for at least the next three days.

Dorian’s steady path is defined by the anticyclone currently stationed in the Mid-Atlantic; continuing to be driven west along the southern edge of the high pressure ridge. The latest satellite data shows that Dorian has lost organisation since yesterday’s update. The latest water vapour images show that it will face the intrusion of dry air at mid-level which should be a central factor in its development, or lack of it.

Water vapour image of Dorian moving towards an area of dry air. © 2014 NOAA

Despite having warmer water ahead than yesterday we shouldn’t expect to see an increase in intensity over the next couple of days. Some models are still presenting the possibility of this system dissipating. However, if the system stays intact, we can probably expect intensification before reaching the Bahamas.

Dorian's wildly varying model forecast tracks. © 2014 SFWMD

Track TS Dorian’s Surf Forecast

Thursday 25th Update

Tropical Storm Dorian starts to increase in strength as it moves towards the Caribbean Islands

Tropical Storm Dorian was located near latitude 15º 36’ N and longitude 34º 30’ W (approximately 1100 km west of Cape Verde) at 9 AM UTC, and the maximum wind speed for Dorian is currently 50 kts, with gusts up to 60 kts. It is forecast to maintain its west-northwest route at an approximate speed of 28 km/h.

Yesterday’s prognosis indicated that we would see a decrease in strength in the next few days, whereas today’s satellite and model data suggests much better organisation within the storm. We are now expecting a slight intensification of the storm in the next couple of days.

Infrared image of Dorian moving towards the Caribbean Islands. © 2014 NOAA

Surf Outlook: At this range is still hard to accurately give an intensity and storm track forecast. Nevertheless within the current forecast we can reasonably expect that the Eastern Caribbean Islands will start to receive the first swell pulses this Sunday. The long-range data shows that most of the East Coast will receive at least some of this swell, but given the instability associated with these type of scenarios further confirmation of the storm’s evolution is required.

Track TS Dorian’s Surf Forecast

Dorian swell for the coming days using the MSW hurricane forecast model. © 2014 magicseaweed

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