Little Rincon/Mussel Shoals Seasonal Surf Averages

Based on the last ten years data for this location this page gives seasonal trends and an idea of what kind of conditions you can expect and when. Of course these are just averages - it's worth reading carefully to understand exactly what they mean and to recognise the kind of variation you could expect on a trip because an average can never tell the whole story. Click on a month below to see more detail. If you want a past forecast for a specific date range then click here.

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Swell Consistency and Wind Overview

95% 88% 7% Jan

95% 90% 5% Feb

93% 82% 11% Mar

87% 64% 23% Apr

81% 51% 30% May

83% 42% 41% Jun

76% 46% 30% Jul

68% 48% 20% Aug

81% 65% 16% Sep

86% 74% 12% Oct

95% 86% 9% Nov

98% 94% 4% Dec

Monthly Overview

Jan Swell Consistency 95% Average Swell Height 7ft Average Swell Period 13s Dominant Wind Dominant Swell	Feb Swell Consistency 95% Average Swell Height 8ft Average Swell Period 13s Dominant Wind Dominant Swell	Mar Swell Consistency 93% Average Swell Height 7ft Average Swell Period 12s Dominant Wind Dominant Swell	Apr Swell Consistency 87% Average Swell Height 6ft Average Swell Period 12s Dominant Wind Dominant Swell
May Swell Consistency 81% Average Swell Height 5ft Average Swell Period 11s Dominant Wind Dominant Swell	Jun Swell Consistency 83% Average Swell Height 5ft Average Swell Period 11s Dominant Wind Dominant Swell	Jul Swell Consistency 76% Average Swell Height 4ft Average Swell Period 12s Dominant Wind Dominant Swell	Aug Swell Consistency 68% Average Swell Height 4ft Average Swell Period 12s Dominant Wind Dominant Swell
Sep Swell Consistency 81% Average Swell Height 4ft Average Swell Period 13s Dominant Wind Dominant Swell	Oct Swell Consistency 86% Average Swell Height 5ft Average Swell Period 12s Dominant Wind Dominant Swell	Nov Swell Consistency 95% Average Swell Height 6ft Average Swell Period 12s Dominant Wind Dominant Swell	Dec Swell Consistency 98% Average Swell Height 7ft Average Swell Period 13s Dominant Wind Dominant Swell

Understanding this Data

These swell averages are calculated ONLY on swells of more than 7 seconds period. This means this is the average height of a swell that's likely to produce ridable surf NOT an average of every wave heading toward the beach in a month. Likewise the period is the average period OVER 7 seconds. There will be days that have short period wind swells that won't produce and ridable swell and these are excluded from the averages. The consistency figure gives the percentage of days that meet this condition.

For example if the consistency is 50% you could expect the 'average' swell for about 15 days in the month. Of course an average tells only part of the story. A combination of very large and very small swells may produce the same average as a consistent medium sized swell.