EARLY WARNING: XL Swell Pulse Set For Europe This Weekend


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Updated 365d ago

Here we go. It's a little way out yet but as of the end of this week, Europe could be blessed with another run of XXL swell, hitting on Sunday and then into Monday.

For the likes of Nazare, the swell will peak on Monday evening and run into Tuesday, December 10. It's a NW swell, capping out around the 13ft@16seconds mark, with a moderate NW wind. With that much swell in the water, it will hit the canyon in Nazare and hopefully jack those figures into the eye-watering realm. The forecast is likely to change over the next few days, given the nature of storms, so it's best to keep an eye on your local spots.

Forecast: Check your local spots across UK + Ireland via our spot guide HERE

Soon, we'll have a day like this once again.

"There is something brewing in the North Atlantic, with several of pulses of large swell expected over the next week or so," says MSW forecaster Tony Butt.

"The current chart shows a complex area of low pressure extending over the northwest part of the North Atlantic, with its main centre just west of Greenland and a developing peripheral wave north of the Azores. This peripheral system is due to shoot north towards Iceland, creating a strong westerly fetch across the northern North Atlantic by Tuesday. Expect wave heights to start increasing in northern areas late Tuesday, ramping up and persisting for the rest of the week, with some smaller, cleaner swell in the south.

Our Nazare chart for Monday. You can see the probability of this forecast on the right hand side. We should know more in the next few days of how this one will play out.

Our Nazare chart for Monday. You can see the probability of this forecast on the right hand side. We should know more in the next few days of how this one will play out.

Forecast: France

"This fetch continues west of Ireland until the end of the week, followed by a very brief ridge of high pressure, then another, more powerful low expected to stall just south of Iceland sometime around the weekend. If this system develops as current forecasts suggest, it will generate a large, long-period swell, bigger and more solid than the first one. Expect lumpy conditions in the north and cleaner conditions in the south as a band of high pressure stretches from the Azores across to Iberia.

"After that, the charts still show a healthy upper air pattern into early next week, with a north-south split in pressure and a strong jetstream. The latest very-long-term forecasts are suggesting a possible third low pressure system to develop south of Iceland, even stronger than the first two."

Can't get away to surf this weekend? Watch our Nazare cam live HERE

But Tony also caveats this run of swell, explaining: "This is all such a long way ahead that things are extremely likely to change. For example, the MSW spot-forecast probabilities are still only around 20 per cent at most spots for that second swell. But keep your fingers crossed.

"And finally, a reminder that long-term forecasts are a three-way playoff between accuracy, precision and forecast length. For example, if you want to make really long-term forecasts with any acceptable degree of accuracy, the statements you make have to be pretty vague (low precision). And if you want to be really precise, your predictions have to be short-term, otherwise they will be uselessly inaccurate. If you fancy some simple maths, I’ve put this into a ‘conceptual model’, where the accuracy (A) of a forecast is inversely proportional to precision (P) and length of forecast (L), i.e."

We'll bring you updates as they develop throughout the week, so right now, bookmark our North Atlantic swell charts page (HERE) and keep an eye on how this system develops.