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Shelly Beach Seasonal Surf Averages

Based on the last ten years data for this location this page gives seasonal trends and an idea of what kind of conditions you can expect and when. Of course these are just averages - it's worth reading carefully to understand exactly what they mean and to recognise the kind of variation you could expect on a trip because an average can never tell the whole story. Click on a month below to see more detail.
If you want a past forecast for a specific date range then click here.

Local Photo


Swell Consistency and Wind Overview

Wind Swell Ground Swell
56%
7%

49%

Jan
60%
12%

48%

Feb
71%
15%

56%

Mar
74%
18%

56%

Apr
68%
19%

49%

May
58%
18%

40%

Jun
64%
19%

45%

Jul
55%
13%

42%

Aug
55%
11%

44%

Sep
56%
9%

47%

Oct
58%
11%

47%

Nov
52%
11%

41%

Dec
This graph shows the percentage of days that had a ridable wind swell (7 seconds period or more) or groundswell (10 seconds period or more) of over 3ft. It also shows the dominant wind direction. Not all of these days will neccessarily give great surf, and very short lived wind swells or longer period secondary swells may produce surf not recorded, but it gives a clear idea of the seasonal trend and a rough guide to the chances of scoring something ridable.

Monthly Overview

Jan
Swell
Consistency
56%
Average Swell
Height
6ft
Average Swell
Period
9s
Dominant Wind
Dominant Swell
Feb
Swell
Consistency
60%
Average Swell
Height
6ft
Average Swell
Period
9s
Dominant Wind
Dominant Swell
Mar
Swell
Consistency
71%
Average Swell
Height
6ft
Average Swell
Period
9s
Dominant Wind
Dominant Swell
Apr
Swell
Consistency
74%
Average Swell
Height
7ft
Average Swell
Period
9s
Dominant Wind
Dominant Swell
May
Swell
Consistency
68%
Average Swell
Height
7ft
Average Swell
Period
9s
Dominant Wind
Dominant Swell
Jun
Swell
Consistency
58%
Average Swell
Height
8ft
Average Swell
Period
10s
Dominant Wind
Dominant Swell
Jul
Swell
Consistency
64%
Average Swell
Height
8ft
Average Swell
Period
9s
Dominant Wind
Dominant Swell
Aug
Swell
Consistency
55%
Average Swell
Height
7ft
Average Swell
Period
9s
Dominant Wind
Dominant Swell
Sep
Swell
Consistency
55%
Average Swell
Height
6ft
Average Swell
Period
9s
Dominant Wind
Dominant Swell
Oct
Swell
Consistency
56%
Average Swell
Height
6ft
Average Swell
Period
9s
Dominant Wind
Dominant Swell
Nov
Swell
Consistency
58%
Average Swell
Height
7ft
Average Swell
Period
9s
Dominant Wind
Dominant Swell
Dec
Swell
Consistency
52%
Average Swell
Height
6ft
Average Swell
Period
9s
Dominant Wind
Dominant Swell

Understanding this Data

These swell averages are calculated ONLY on swells of more than 7 seconds period. This means this is the average height of a swell that's likely to produce ridable surf NOT an average of every wave heading toward the beach in a month. Likewise the period is the average period OVER 7 seconds. There will be days that have short period wind swells that won't produce and ridable swell and these are excluded from the averages. The consistency figure gives the percentage of days that meet this condition.

For example if the consistency is 50% you could expect the 'average' swell for about 15 days in the month. Of course an average tells only part of the story. A combination of very large and very small swells may produce the same average as a consistent medium sized swell.

Monthly Data

January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

Nearby Spots

Forresters
Wamberal
Avoca Beach
Soldiers Beach
Norah Head
Copacabana
Macmasters Beach
Box Head
Umina Beach
Avalon
Swansea
Little Avalon
Bilgola Beach
The Peak (Newport Beach)
Bungan
Mona Vale
Warriewood
North Narrabeen
South Narrabeen
Redhead
Dee Why Point
Curl Curl
Queenscliff
Winki Pop / Fairy Bower
Sydney (Manly)
North/ South Steyne
Bar Beach (Dixon Park)
Newcastle
Sydney (Bondi)
Bronte Beach
Sydney (Maroubra)
Sydney (Cronulla)
Sydney - Shark Island
Anna Bay
Shoal Bay
Coalcliff Reef
Wombarra
Austinmer Beach
Wollongong
The Farm
Seal Rocks
Bombo
Boomerang Beach
Werri Beach
Black Point
Forster
Seven Mile Beach
Old Bar
Black Rock / Aussie Pipe
Sussex Inlet
Coneeley's Reef
Diamond Head
Bendalong Beach
Green Island
North Haven
Mollymook Beach
Dolphin Point
Dum Dums
Port Macquarie
Crescent Head
Broulee
Scotts Head
Valla
Bermagui
Sawtell
Coffs Harbour
Moonee Creek
Emerald Beach
Arrawarra
Merimbula